Probing the Possibilities

 

When it comes to playing the genetic genealogy "what if" game, fortunately there are now some useful tools to help us probe relationship possibilities between specific DNA matches. As we focus on the possible connection between Anna Flanagan Malloy's descendant (my husband, the willing DNA test subject) and a DNA tester descended from someone named James Flanagan, there are indeed a few relationship possibilities—but there are also a few roadblocks standing between us and an answer.

Let's break down the few facts already known in this case. First, despite not yet knowing the relationship between the two test-takers, we can at least affirm that they share seventeen centiMorgans. Granted, that is not a very large amount of genetic material shared between them, but it does tell us something. If we plug that amount into the interactive updated beta version of Blaine Bettinger's Shared centiMorgan Project at DNA Painter, we see some encouraging news: there is a 23% relationship probability that the two subjects in question could be third cousins, once removed. 

For now, I'll provide a brief overview of the descendancy chart provided by the DNA match's own tree posted at Ancestry.com. This person's ancestral connection, James Flanagan, was listed with a birth year of 1814—quite close to our Anna's own supposed year of birth in 1812. According to that same match's family tree, there are two additional generations between that original James and the DNA match, whereas in our case, there are three additional generations.

In other words, comparing the two DNA matches' trees, it looks like the relationship for the two matches would be third cousins, once removed. That level of relationship, according to the Shared centiMorgan Project, would be statistically supported at the 17 cM level—an encouraging sign.

What if, instead, Anna and James Flanagan were not siblings but, say, cousins? Even a fourth cousin once removed relationship would be supported by statistical analysis, with a 15% probability. 

There are some other promising signs. One is that the property in question, that lot listed as 7f in the Valuation Office records for Capananty Townland in County Limerick, was eventually passed from William Flanagan to someone named James Flanagan. And a note in the property records indicated that the property in question was in probate by 1939—one year after that same DNA match's ancestor James Flanagan had died.

Granted, we always need to double check any family trees we find online, to prove the record for ourselves. Since there are a few details in this review which cause me some doubt, that is exactly what we'll need to do next.